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研究报告

整车制造行业发债企业信用分析

浅述偿二代二期工程的实施对保险公司评级的影响

How We Assess Holistic Adjustment in FI Ratings

Life Insurance: Stable Credit Outlook for 2022 Underpinned by Strong Capitalization, Low Debts and Good Earnings

人身险行业偿付能力充足,债务水平维持低位,盈利能力可观


整车制造行业发债企业信用分析

― 我们认为,得益于自身领先的竞争地位、较低的财务风险及所在政府的较高支持力度,中国一汽、上汽集团、兵装集团、东风集团、广汽集团的潜在主体信用质量相对较高。

― 我们认为,在乘用车市场中市占率较高、规模较大的企业,竞争地位相对领先;而以商用车为主要业务的企业,由于市场规模较小而竞争地位相对偏弱。

― 整车制造企业财务风险存在分化,部分大型国有企业的现金流非常充裕,而客车企业的财务风险相对较高。未来随着行业四化趋势的发展,资本支出将持续增大,行业中企业的财务风险将整体呈升高趋势。

― 我们认为,由于汽车工业对宏观经济、消费、税收等具有较强的拉动作用,样本企业中头部的中央或地方国企通常能够获得较高水平的政府支持。



浅述偿二代二期工程的实施对保险公司评级的影响

我们认为,短期来看,偿二代二期工程的实施对国内保险公司的评级无显著影响;中长期来看,有利于提升保险公司资本管理和风险管理水平,夯实资本质量,有利于保险行业信用质量的提升。
2021年12月,银保监会发布《保险公司偿付能力监管规则(Ⅱ)》(“规则Ⅱ”),并将于2022年第一季度开始实施。规则Ⅱ对风险因子的调整、对保险公司投资资产的穿透管理以及对保险公司风险管理能力更加细致的评估等措施有利于提升保险行业资本管理能力。


How We Assess Holistic Adjustment in FI Ratings

According to our financial institution (“FI”) rating criteria, we typically determine the stand-alone credit profile (“SACP”) based on our assessment of an institution’s anchor, a starting point, and then incorporate its own characteristics compared with the anchor. The entity-specific factors that we may use to adjust from the anchor include business position, capital & earnings, risk position, and funding & liquidity. We then determine the issuer credit rating (“ICR”) based on the SACP and our assessment of potential group or government influence in times of stress.

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Life Insurance: Stable Credit Outlook for 2022 Underpinned by Strong Capitalization, Low Debts and Good Earnings

We are maintaining our stable outlook on the life insurance sector for 2022. Nonetheless, insurers continue to face challenges related to their investment exposure to heightened volatility in the capital market.
Large life insurers will continue to enjoy stable business momentum and market share going forward, but small players will face more difficulties when sector growth stagnates. In the first eleven months of 2021, premium growth in the life insurance sector dropped by 1.6% YoY. Given the limited ability of small players to grow through investment-type products thanks to tightened regulations since 2017, larger companies are in a good position to defend their market share with their strong distribution channels for protection products.
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人身险行业偿付能力充足,债务水平维持低位,盈利能力可观

我们认为,2022年人身险行业信用质量将保持稳定。但人身险公司将继续面临资本市场高波动带来的投资业务风险。
大型人身险公司在未来将继续享有稳定的业务实力和市场份额,但当行业增长缓慢时,小型人身险公司将面临更多展业困难。在2021年前11个月,人身险公司原保险保费收入同比下降1.6%。由于2017年以来监管环境趋紧,小型人身险公司通过投资型产品扩大规模的能力有限,大型人身险公司则凭借其强大的保障型产品销售渠道,能够维持其市场份额。

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