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研究报告

Credit Analysis of China’s Toll Road Operators

Presale: Jianxin 2020-7 Non-performing Asset Backed Securities, December 1, 2020

Rating Action: Jianxin 2020-7 Non-performing Asset Backed Securities Senior Notes Assigned AAAspc(sf) Preliminary Rating

售前评级报告:建鑫2020年第七期不良资产支持证券,2020年12月1日

评级行动:评定“建鑫2020年第七期不良资产支持证券”优先档证券的预期信用等级为AAAspc(sf)


Credit Analysis of China’s Toll Road Operators

― In our opinion, thanks to potential government support, the indicative issuer credit quality of the toll road issuers in our sample is generally strong, ranking at the forefront among corporate sectors.
― In our view the business risk profiles of toll road operators vary due to the differences in economic development of their catchment areas, the market share and irreplaceability of their network in the regions they cover, and the scale and efficiency of their own road networks.
― However, companies in this sector have similar financial risk profiles, most of which are at aggressive or highly leveraged levels, due to heavy capital investment, long payback periods and large ongoing capital expenditure. Notwithstanding that, their refinancing pressures are limited.
― We expect most of the provincial-level state-owned operators in the sample to receive a critical level of local government support, due to toll roads’ status as important transport infrastructure that can boost local economic development, and the generally limited number of toll road operators within a region.



Presale: Jianxin 2020-7 Non-performing Asset Backed Securities, December 1, 2020

On December 1, 2020, S&P Global (China) Ratings published its presale report on Jianxin 2020-7 Non-performing Asset Backed Securities. Please click the button below to read the report in PDF.



Rating Action: Jianxin 2020-7 Non-performing Asset Backed Securities Senior Notes Assigned AAAspc(sf) Preliminary Rating

S&P Global (China) Ratings has assigned its preliminary AAAspc(sf) rating to the Senior Notes of the Jianxin 2020-7 Non-performing Asset Backed Securities transaction to be issued by China Construction Bank Trust Co., Ltd. (CCB Trust) and originated by China Construction Bank Corp (CCB).

We assigned the preliminary rating based on information as of November 17, 2020. We expect to assign and publish our final rating when the trust becomes effective.

Based on recovery data provided by CCB between July and October 2020, the actual recovery of the asset pool performed well. As of the end of October 2020, total recovered cash accounted for 80.1% of the senior notes to be issued.

 

The preliminary rating reflects our opinions according to the analysis of five pillars under S&P Ratings China--Structured Finance Methodology:

 

Credit Quality of the Securitized Assets: We analyzed the originator’s operation model, non-performing loan management policy, collection ability and historical experience, static pool and related data performance, securitized asset features and actual recovery performance. We estimated the recovery rate for the portfolio to be 13.65% under our AAAspc(sf) rating stress scenario.

 

Payment Structure and Cash Flow Mechanics: Based on the cash flow analysis and stress testing, we expect senior notes to be able to pay principal and interest on time and in full under the current notes’ rating, transaction structure and related assumptions. Our analysis and stress scenarios for the transaction include various combinations such as recovery amount, recovery timing, interest rate and expenses. Under our most stressed scenario, the final S&P Global (China) Ratings CE buffer is 0%.

 

Operational and Administrative Risk: The servicer CCB has rich experience in managing NPL securitization products. We believe the bank’s IT infrastructure and operation model are capable of fulfilling the duties and responsibilities stipulated in the agreement. Although there is no back-up servicer on this transaction, the transaction will set aside a cash reserve to provide liquidity support. Besides, the transaction is exposed to collection agency due diligence risk, but we believe the participants in this transaction are capable of fulfilling the duties and responsibilities stipulated in the agreement given their experience and past track record.

 

Counterparty Risk: Our assessment of counterparty risk takes into account payment interruption risk, account bank risk, commingling risk and set off risk etc. The transaction documents have incorporated various credit quality triggers to mitigate the abovementioned counterparty risk.

 

Legal and Regulatory Risk: We believe the special purpose trust’s legal structure meets the principle of true sale and bankruptcy remoteness in securitization. Through our legal analysis, risks related to borrower notification, statute of limitation on recovering credit card debt, conflict of interest and other legal risk have been sufficiently mitigated by the arrangements stipulated in the transaction documents.

 

List of Preliminary Ratings:

Senior Notes: AAAspc(sf)

 

Methodology Applied:

  • S&P Ratings China--Structured Finance Methodology

 

Related Research:

  • Commentary: Understanding Our Approach to China Consumer Asset-Backed Securities
  • Commentary: Mega Banks – Strong Enough to Withstand COVID-19: 2020 Outlook for Chinese Mega Banks
  • FAQs on Banks’ Nonperforming Assets and Securitization

 

Media Contacts:

Sharon Tang, Beijing, (86)10-6569-2988; sharon.tang@spgchinaratings.com

 

Analyst Contacts:

Beibei Shi, CFA, Beijing; beibei.shi@spgchinaratings.cn

Jiarong Li, Beijing; jiarong.li@spgchinaratings.cn

Jieqiong Du, Beijing; jieqiong.du@spgchinaratings.cn

(Note: This document is prepared in both English and Chinese. The English translation is for reference only, and the Chinese version will prevail in the event of any inconsistency between the English version and the Chinese version.)


售前评级报告:建鑫2020年第七期不良资产支持证券,2020年12月1日

2020年12月1日,标普信评发布建鑫2020年第七期不良资产支持证券售前评级报告。

Click here to view the English version.



评级行动:评定“建鑫2020年第七期不良资产支持证券”优先档证券的预期信用等级为AAAspc(sf)

北京,2020年12月1日—标普信评今日宣布,已评定“建鑫2020年第七期不良资产支持证券”项下优先档资产支持证券(以下简称“优先档证券”)的预期信用等级为AAAspc(sf)。该交易由中国建设银行股份有限公司(以下简称“建设银行”)发起,将由建信信托有限责任公司受托发行。

上述预期信用等级是根据截至2020年11月17日的资料及分析评定的,标普信评预期将于信托设立日确认并公布最终信用等级。

根据建设银行提供的7月至10月的回收数据,本期资产池的实际回收情况表现良好;截至2020年10月末,整体回收金额占优先档证券金额的比例约为80.1%。

 

根据标普信评结构融资方法论五大方面的分析,上述预期信用等级主要反映了以下观点:

 

基础资产信用质量:标普信评综合考虑了发起机构的运营模式和不良贷款管理政策、回收管理能力和历史经验,静态池及相关历史数据的表现,资产池特征及真实回收情况等因素,我们预计本期交易的资产池在AAAspc(sf)级别压力情景下的回收率假设为13.65%。

 

现金流和交易结构:通过现金流分析和压力测试,标普信评预计本期交易在当前证券级别、交易结构及相关假设下,优先档证券仍能够按时足额偿付本息。我们对本期交易分析和加压的参数包括回收金额、回收时间、利率环境及各项支出等多种组合,在标普信评最严格的压力情景下,标普信评增信缓冲最终测算结果为0%。

 

运营和管理风险:本期交易的贷款服务机构建设银行具备较为丰富的不良信用卡债权和证券化产品的管理经验,其IT基础设施和运营系统能够有效地支持其履行服务机构合同中所规定的职责。虽然本期交易中并未指定后备贷款服务机构,但流动性储备金额的设置能够为交易提供流动性支持。此外,本期交易可能存在催收机构尽职风险。但我们认为本期交易参与方经验丰富,具备履行其相应职责的能力。

 

交易对手风险:标普信评在评估交易对手风险时考虑了资金保管机构风险、偿付中断风险、混同风险、抵销风险等因素。我们认为目前的交易安排能够缓释相关交易对手风险。

 

法律和监管风险:我们认为本期信托的法律结构符合资产证券化对真实出售与破产隔离的要求。本期交易可能存在未通知借款人、信用卡债权的诉讼时效、利益冲突风险及其他法律风险,但现有的交易安排可有效缓释上述风险。

 

预期信用等级列表:

优先档证券:AAAspc(sf)

 

评级方法:

标普信用评级(中国)— 结构融资评级方法论

 

相关评论与研究:

  1. 评论:解读标普信用评级(中国) 个人消费贷款资产支持证券分析方法
  2. 评论:疫情冲击下展现韧性:大型国有商业银行2020年信用质量展望
  3. 评论:银行不良资产和不良资产证券化答疑

 

传媒联络人:

汤劭颖,北京;(86)10-6569-2988;sharon.tang@spgchinaratings.com

 

分析师

施蓓蓓,CFA,北京;beibei.shi@spgchinaratings.cn

李佳蓉,北京;jiarong.li@spgchinaratings.cn

杜洁琼,北京;jieqiong.du@spgchinaratings.cn


Click here  to view the English version.