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New Challenges Arise for Credit Loss Provisioning Under IFRS 9 Amid COVID-19

绿色金融专题一:全球视野下的绿色金融政策和标准对比

政策护航,破浪启新——标普信评2025年中行业信用发展趋势

财政部通报六起隐性债务问责典型案例——政府表态更趋严厉,坚决遏制新增隐债

义乌中国小商品城控股集团有限公司高管变动不影响其信用质量


New Challenges Arise for Credit Loss Provisioning Under IFRS 9 Amid COVID-19

We believe the credit loss provisioning under International Financial Reporting Standards 9 (“IFRS 9”) has been put to test by the sudden rise of economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19. We anticipate higher short-term provisioning volatility under IFRS 9 amid the pandemic. Nevertheless, such possible elevated volatility does not have a material impact on our fundamental credit views on Chinese banks. 

IFRS 9 intends to reflect a forward-looking view on expected credit loss (“ECL”) through provisioning. Before IFRS 9, accounting rules typically conducted provisioning based on the incurred loss method. Chinese banks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have adopted IFRS 9 since January 1, 2018. About 30 Chinese banks are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and thus need to follow IFRS 9. They accounted for about 68% of the total assets of China’s commercial banking sector as of the end of 2019. 

Within the IFRS 9 impairment model, forecasts on future macroeconomic conditions and provisioning method for specific credit exposure are two major factors which may lead to potential volatility in provisioning amid COVID-19.  

The downward pressure and uncertainty on GDP growth would be reflected in impairment charges under IFRS 9. Forecasts on future macroeconomic conditions are an integral part of the provisioning model under IFRS 9. Economists’ outlooks on GDP growth in 2020 have dropped significantly in recent months. When the lower GDP data are used as the model’s input, there may be some effect on the shape of the probability of default (“PD”) distribution, which may increase general provisioning pressure on all bank assets which require credit loss provisioning. 

The provisioning method for specific credit exposure under IFRS 9 may also amplify the cyclical nature of banks’ impairment charges. Under IFRS 9, provisions are estimated based on the ECL for the entire remaining life of under-performing assets (stage 2 assets) and non-performing assets (stage 3 assets), but only based on the 12-month ECL for performing assets (stage 1 assets). The difference in ECL calculation methods when an asset migrates from stage 1 to stage 2/3 may lead to a sharp increase in impairment charges (see Appendix 1 for details).  Such impact may be small in regular times, but may potentially be significant under COVID-19, with many borrowers hit by the pandemic at the same time. 

In addition, making a reliable ECL forecast for borrowers in hard-hit sectors has become more challenging given the high uncertainty over the trajectory of the pandemic. The provisioning pressure on different industries varies and we anticipate higher pressure in the aviation, tourism, restaurant and recreation sectors as well as among small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, the provisioning pressure on banks will differ based on their respective portfolio concentration. 

Due to the challenges concerning quantitative assessment, we believe, in the short term, qualitative assessment by the management is an important input in provision modeling. We expect banks’ management teams to mitigate impairment charge volatility after they incorporate government support for the real economy into their assessments. 

Nevertheless, from a credit perspective, the possible weakening of internal capital generation capacity resulting from higher provisioning is compensated by a corresponding increase in banks’ reserve buffers. Therefore, any earning volatility caused by IFRS 9 provisioning does not have a material impact on banks’ overall capitalization. It is more important to assess the actual credit cost of the pandemic, but the extent of its actual impact is still too early to tell. Before COVID-19, the initial adoption of IFRS 9 in 2018 had no significant impact on Chinese banks’ capital levels (see appendix 2 for details).  



绿色金融专题一:全球视野下的绿色金融政策和标准对比

  • 绿色金融的概念是动态发展的,其支持范围已从传统的环保产业活动扩展到传统高碳行业的低碳转型活动,并逐步形成了以可持续发展为核心的理念体系。在中国,绿色金融的支持范围随着国家对绿色金融目录的更新而持续调整。最新发布的《绿色金融支持项目目录(2025年版)》标志着绿色金融正朝着促进整个经济体系绿色转型的方向迈进。
  • 中国、欧盟和美国在绿色金融政策体系上各具特色:欧盟强调法律先行、标准统一及强制信息披露要求,构建了全球范围内较为完善且具约束力的绿色金融监管与市场体系;中国的绿色金融政策体系主要依赖部门规章层级的政策性指导文件,这些文件的强制性弱于法律;而美国则更倾向于利用成熟的资本市场和强大的市场驱动力,但由于联邦层面缺乏一贯性和长期稳定性,导致整体政策连续性较弱。
  • 国际主要绿色标准对比显示,欧盟在技术指标设定与评估流程设计上具有更高的规范性与精细化程度,相比之下,中国的绿色标准体系主要采用“正面清单”模式,旨在提升政策可操作性以扩大绿色金融市场,但在技术细节等方面不如欧盟标准详尽。国际通行标准则注重原则导向与灵活性,为不同司法管辖区的制度适配提供较大空间。
  • 中国绿色金融政策体系在深化过程中仍面临多重挑战:与国际标准的一致性不足、ESG信息披露的强制性和覆盖面不足,以及现行机制偏向追求短期规模扩张而非长期绿色项目的效益评估。

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政策护航,破浪启新——标普信评2025年中行业信用发展趋势

  • 预计2025年全国商品房销售压力仍存。高线城市继续支撑市场,但结构上仍面临二手房分流、库存分化明显的矛盾。稳住楼市仍有赖于政策的持续发力,城中村改造货币化安置及回储政策或将是政策发力的重点。
  • 受益于债务置换及专项债券用途扩展,城投企业流动性压力缓解,短期内出现债券信用风险事件的概率较低,但基本面难以显著改善。长期关注中央债务化解新增政策和城投转型成效。
  • 与房地产行业紧密相关联的钢铁和建筑工程施工行业将基本延续需求疲软趋势。其中钢铁行业“反内卷”和成本回落或有助于利润修复,但财务杠杆仍将维持高位;建筑工程施工行业利润率将在低位保持稳定。
  • 火电、风电设备和光伏制造行业的企业盈利能力或将改善,煤炭、清洁能源发电、整车制造以及商业物业持有及运营行业的企业利润率或将有所下降,杠杆率将有所上升。
  • 商业银行净息差继续收窄,信用成本依然承压,行业总体盈利性较2024年会有小幅下降,但信用质量仍然能保持稳定,未来12个月高风险银行违约风险可控。

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财政部通报六起隐性债务问责典型案例——政府表态更趋严厉,坚决遏制新增隐债

  • 财政部年内两次通报隐性债务问责案例,反映出地方化债形势依然严峻,中央政府监管依然 较为严格。
  • 7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议重申加强地方债务风险防控,明确“有力有序有效推进 地方融资平台出清”。我们认为,政策意在剥离城投企业的政府融资职能,而非否定其主体 价值;未来,城投公司仍可通过市场化转型继续实现发展。
  • 近年来,中央政府采取力度空前的政策措施,全力支持地方政府化解隐性债务,但今年审计 署披露的违规举债情况表明,部分地区在化解隐性债务方面仍需改进和加强。在此背景下, 中央持续释放对违规融资“零容忍”的强烈信号,以防范地方政府可能出现的道德风险。 

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义乌中国小商品城控股集团有限公司高管变动不影响其信用质量

2025年7月28日,义乌中国小商品城控股集团有限公司(以下简称“商城控股”或“公司”,原名“义乌中国小商品城控股有限责任公司”)发布《义乌中国小商品城控股集团有限公司关于董事长、法定代表人、总经理及信息披露事务负责人发生变动的公告》(以下简称“公告”)。公告显示,公司董事长、法定代表人、总经理及信息披露事务负责人发生变更,人员变动的原因和依据如下。 根据《义乌市人民政府关于陈德占等职务任免的通知》(义政干〔2025〕17号):陈德占任公司董事、董事长;免去王栋公司董事长、董事职务。根据《义乌中国小商品城控股集团有限公司章程》,公司的法定代表人由董事长担任,执行公司事务。根据《义乌中国小商品城控股集团有限公司股东决定》,委派陈德占为公司本届董事;免去王栋公司董事职务。根据《义乌中国小商品城控股集团有限公司董事会决定》,选举陈德占担任公司董事长,执行公司事务,为法定代表人;聘任陈德占担任公司总经理;原任职人员同时免去。经上述人事变动后,公司的董事长、法定代表人、总经理由王栋变更为陈德占。本次变动已完成公司内部审批流程,决策程序符合《公司法》等相关法律法规及公司章程的规定。截至公告出具之日,公司已完成工商变更登记手续。

标普信用评级(中国)有限公司(以下简称“标普信评”)认为,上述高管变动属于国有企业正常人事调整,不影响商城控股的信用质量。

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