This desktop analysis is based on S&P Global (China) Ratings Financial Institutions Methodology. We typically determine the stand-alone credit quality based on our assessment of an institution’s anchor, a starting point, and then incorporate its own characteristics compared with the anchor. S&P Global (China) Ratings typically applies an anchor of ‘bb+’ for non-bank financial institutions (“NBFI”). For NBFIs licensed and regulated by China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (“CBIRC”), we typically adjust their anchor from ‘bb+’ to ‘bbb-’ to reflect their robust regulatory environment and access to the inter-bank market. The entity-specific factors that we may use to adjust from the anchor include business position, capital and earnings, risk position, and funding and liquidity. We then determine the issuer credit quality based on the stand-alone credit quality and our assessment of potential group and government influence. 

我们预计，2024年乘用车销量将小幅增长，整车制造企业将延续2023年的四大趋势，新能源汽车和出口动能仍将维持强劲，竞争和洗牌将成为2024年的主旋律。

（ 编者按：本研究是对2024年2月发布的研究的更新，对TLAC债券实际发行情况和银行TLAC缺口情况进行了更新。 ）

标普信评对于TLAC非资本债券的主要信用观点：

（1）随着TLAC非资本债务工具的发行和混合资本债券的发行，结合资本新规的执行和银行对自身资产负债管理的优化，我们预计四大行有望在2025年初实现TLAC达标；

（2）由于TLAC达标边际紧张，TLAC达标会对四大行未来风险加权资产增速构成制约；

（3）TLAC非资本债券的发行对于国有大行的信用质量无重大影响。如果国有大行发生危机，我们认为中央政府会在银行进入处置阶段之前给与支持；

（4）由于TLAC非资本债券只能在处置阶段吸收损失，考虑到国有大行很强的个体信用质量和政府支持可能性，国有大行TLAC非资本债券实际用于吸收损失的可能性很小，因此TLAC非资本债券信用质量很高。

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