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研究报告

大而不能倒?中国引入新框架强化金融机构抵抗风险能力

Real Estate Developers with High Leverage to See Inventory Quality Tested Under Broader “Three Red Lines” Policy

“三道红线”考验高杠杆房企的存货质量

Credit Analysis of China’s Toll Road Operators

高速公路行业发债企业信用分析


大而不能倒?中国引入新框架强化金融机构抵抗风险能力

香港,2018年11月30日—标普全球评级今日表示,中国将界定国内系统重要性金融 机构(即“大而不能倒”的金融机构)并完善相关监管制度,这将有助于防范系统性 金融风险。在决策层要求银行加大对普遍视为风险更高的民营企业的贷款力度之际, 此举有助于强化审慎监管要求。 
 
“界定国内系统重要性金融机构并适当扩大名单范围有助于强化对金融体系的管 控,”标普全球评级信用分析师俞靓表示,“对入选机构而言,资本监管约束机制进 一步强化。部分中型银行如果入选,可能会面临一定压力。” 
 
11月27日,中国人民银行、银保监会、证监会联合印发《关于完善系统重要性金融机 构监管的指导意见》。系统重要性金融机构这一名词经常被认为带有“太大而不能 倒”的意涵。不同于其他国家常规的是,中国评估系统重要性金融机构的对象不仅包 含银行、保险公司,也包括了券商及金融控股公司。 
 
国内系统重要性金融机构将面临更为严格的资本、杠杆率等监管要求,在公司治理、 风险管理、披露要求、危机管理等方面也会面临更加严格的规定。 
 
中国已经加入巴塞尔委员会的全球系统重要性金融机构框架,并有五家内地机构被认 定为全球系统重要性金融机构,这意味着若它们出现问题可能会影响到全球金融体系 稳定性。因此,这些机构面临着更高的资本及治理标准。例如,中国的四家全球系统 重要性银行需要分别计提1%或1.5%的附加资本要求。 
 
我们认为,国内系统重要性银行附加资本要求应该不会高于全球系统重要性银行相关 要求。截至2018年6月30日,前30大中国上市商业银行中,有23家银行的资本水平比 目前监管要求高出至少1%。 
 
但是若一些股份制银行被认定为国内系统重要性银行,其应对更高的资本要求的缓冲 空间有限。特别是考虑到实施更加严格的贷款分类标准后,部分股份制银行的资本缓 冲水平本就可能会被削弱。相较于国际上按照不同机构组别设定单一对应的附加资本 要求的做法,我们预计中国将在设定附加资本要求方面表现出一定的灵活性并将更加 细化。 
 

完善监管框架以应对潜在上升风险 

 
中国完善国内系统重要性金融机构监管是加强系统性金融风险管控措施的一部分,在 此之前政府还出台相关措施,例如抑制影子银行及规范网贷业务等。巴塞尔委员会其
他26个成员国或地区均已经发布了国内系统重要性银行的框架,中国也就此建立相应 制度安排。 
 
国内系统重要性金融机构的新监管框架有助于提高抵抗风险能力,然而在当前政策制 定者正鼓励银行以“可负担的利率水平”增加对中小企业和民营企业的贷款的情况 下,上述指导意见同时也增加了金融机构的合规成本。 
 
类似鼓励贷款的举措旨在引导信贷更为有效地流向实体经济领域,以支持经济实现稳 定、平衡增长。然而,这也可能提升风险,并消耗银行资本。 
 
标普全球评级信用分析师曾怡景表示:“对银行业的影响取决于政策的具体执行,例 如相关贷款指导意见是否会变成硬性指标。如果需要执行硬性指标,将迫使银行自身 去解决其他所有问题,将对银行的风险管理和资本管理构成很大挑战。” 
 
指导意见要求建立特别处置机制。在此基础上,我们预计对系统重要性金融机构在压 力困境下的管理将进一步规范化。不过我们认为监管框架仍将给政府预留足够的灵活 性对银行纾困。我们认为中国政府仍将高度支持具有系统重要性的银行,在我们的评 级中会继续将这一因素考虑在内。 



Real Estate Developers with High Leverage to See Inventory Quality Tested Under Broader “Three Red Lines” Policy

In our view, the widening of regulations aimed at controlling real estate developers’ interest-bearing debt would further reduce the industry’s overall credit risk in the long term. However, the nearer term may see less headroom for highly leveraged developers to finance in the capital market, pushing them to sell off inventory to ease liquidity pressure.


“三道红线”考验高杠杆房企的存货质量

标普信评认为,如果控制房地产企业有息债务增长的监管规则扩大适用范围,长期来看有利于房地产行业整体信用风险的下降,但中短期内高杠杆房企在资本市场的融资空间将被压缩,存货变现将成其缓和流动性压力的关键。



Credit Analysis of China’s Toll Road Operators

― In our opinion, thanks to potential government support, the indicative issuer credit quality of the toll road issuers in our sample is generally strong, ranking at the forefront among corporate sectors.
― In our view the business risk profiles of toll road operators vary due to the differences in economic development of their catchment areas, the market share and irreplaceability of their network in the regions they cover, and the scale and efficiency of their own road networks.
― However, companies in this sector have similar financial risk profiles, most of which are at aggressive or highly leveraged levels, due to heavy capital investment, long payback periods and large ongoing capital expenditure. Notwithstanding that, their refinancing pressures are limited.
― We expect most of the provincial-level state-owned operators in the sample to receive a critical level of local government support, due to toll roads’ status as important transport infrastructure that can boost local economic development, and the generally limited number of toll road operators within a region.



高速公路行业发债企业信用分析

― 我们认为,得益于潜在的政府支持,样本高速公路企业的潜在主体信用质量整体较优,在工商企业各行业里位居前列。
― 我们认为,高速公路企业的业务状况主要由其所服务区域的经济发达程度、所覆盖区域的市场份额和不可替代性以及自身路产规模和效益等因素决定,不同省份的企业表现差异显著。
― 在投资规模大、资产回报周期长、资本开支持续的背景下高速公路全行业企业的财务风险更为相似并多数处于偏高水平,但其再融资压力均较小。
― 我们认为,由于高速公路行业往往是促进地方经济发展的重要交通基础设施,同时地方政府一般只设立一家或少数几家高速公路企业,对于样本企业中的绝大部分省级地方国企,我们通常认为它们能够获得极高水平的地方政府支持。