中国企业将在去杠杆道路上艰难前行
评级报告:中国建设银行股份有限公司,2021年1月19日
评级行动:评定建设银行主体信用等级AAAspc,展望稳定;评定其金融债券信用等级为AAAspc
债项信用等级通知:中国建设银行股份有限公司2021年小型微型企业贷款专项金融债券
Rating Action: China Construction Bank Assigned “AAAspc/stable”, and Its Financial Bond Rated “AAAspc”
中国企业将在去杠杆道路上艰难前行
- 中国企业连续两年的去杠杆趋势恐难以延续。
- 企业债务对 EBITDA 比率的中位数由 2015 年的 3.8 倍、2016 年的 倍进一步降至 2017 年 的 3.3 倍。
- 受益于供给侧改革及价格持续上涨,去年上游行业国企的去杠杆力度最大。
- 在今年的中国大型企业研究中,房地产行业超过石油和天然气行业,成为第三大高负债行业。
- 根据此前研究,私营企业的资本利用效率和财务指标优于国企。
- 我们评估中国 254 大企业的总体业务状况为普通,财务风险为中等。
- 我们根据业务状况和财务风险矩阵得出 254 大企业的基准评级为“bb+ ”,而去年的结果为 “bbb/bbb- ”。
- 财务风险和业务状况弱化反映出我们的前瞻性观点,同时今年的研究样本范围有所扩大。今年 我们的样本新增 家企业和 个行业。
- 我们预计去杠杆将暂停,原因在于影子银行监管导致信贷环境收紧,且利润增速也开始从高位 下滑。
评级报告:中国建设银行股份有限公司,2021年1月19日
评级行动:评定建设银行主体信用等级AAAspc,展望稳定;评定其金融债券信用等级为AAAspc
北京,2021年1月19日 — 标普信评宣布评定中国建设银行股份有限公司(“建设银行”)主体信用等级为AAAspc,展望为稳定。同时,标普信评评定建设银行发行的2021年小型微型企业贷款专项金融债券的债项信用等级为AAAspc。
我们评定建设银行的个体信用状况为aaspc,较我们在评定商业银行主体信用等级时通常采用的评级基准bbb+高出5个子级。这主要反映了该行作为国内第二大银行,不仅拥有强大的业务网络,还凭借庞大的存款基础而具备极强的融资和流动性。
我们评定建设银行的主体信用等级为AAAspc,在该行aaspc的个体信用状况基础上调升2个子级,这主要反映了危机情况下该行得到政府支持的可能性极高。
作为中国第二大商业银行,建设银行的国内机构网络覆盖广度领先,境内网点超过14,000个,境外网点33个。截至2019年末,该行在国内贷款和存款市场的份额分别为11.56%和9.27%。建设银行在公司和零售银行领域拥有均衡且强大的业务实力,在基础设施融资和个人住房按揭贷款方面具有显著的优势。
建设银行是国内存款基础最强的银行之一,对批发资金的使用有限。截至2019年末,该行负债中客户存款占79%,批发资金占约18%,对批发资金的依赖度低于行业平均水平。在市场出现紧张情绪时,该行还会受益于投资者的避险操作。2019年第四季度,该行流动性覆盖率日均值为155%,远高于100%的监管最低要求。
建设银行资本充足,盈利能力良好。该行是全球系统重要性银行,我们预计该行将继续夯实资本。尽管新冠疫情对该行盈利造成一定的负面冲击,但我们认为该行的资本水平仍将保持良好。在大型国有商业银行中,建设银行的监管资本充足率是最高的。截至2020年6月末,该行披露的一级资本充足率为13.88%,比大型国有银行平均水平高1.10个百分点,比全行业平均水平高2.27个百分点。
建设银行贷款资产的风险状况与行业平均水平总体一致。该行的资产质量因疫情而承压,截至2020年6月末,该行不良贷款率为1.49%,比2019年末高7个基点。我们认为,今年上半年资产质量稳定的部分原因在于不良贷款确认的滞后效应、新贷款的快速增长以及核销等。我们同时意识到,小微贷款的资产质量仍存在一定的不确定性,具体影响因素包括银行今年的贷款投放标准和未来的经济恢复进程。
我们认为,在危机情况下,建设银行得到中央政府特殊支持的可能性极高。该行是大型国有商业银行,在维护国内金融稳定、为重大基础设施建设融资以及执行其他重要政府政策方面发挥重要作用。截至2019年末,中央政府通过汇金公司持有该行约57%的股份。
本期金融债券属于银行发行的、清偿顺序等同于银行未设定财产担保的一般负债,是先于建设银行股权资本清偿的金融债券。因此,标普信评评定本期债券的信用等级等同于发行人主体信用等级。我们认为,本次小型微型企业贷款专项金融债券的发行有利于建设银行发展小微贷款业务。本期债券的计划发行规模为人民币200亿元,期限为3年期。
主体信用等级分项评估:
评级基准:bbb+
业务状况:+3
资本与盈利性:0
风险状况:0
融资与流动性:+2
个体信用状况:aaspc
政府支持:+2
主体信用等级:AAAspc
评级展望/观察:稳定
相关信用评级报告:
主体评级报告:中国建设银行股份有限公司,2020年9月18日。
债项信用等级通知:评定中国建设银行股份有限公司2021年小型微型企业贷款专项金融债券信用等级为AAAspc,2021年1月11日。
相关评级方法及研究:
评论:解读标普信用评级(中国)评级调整因子及偿付顺序的通用考量因素方法论
传媒联络人:
汤劭颖,北京;(86)10-6569-2988;sharon.tang@spgchinaratings.cn
分析师:
陈龙泰,北京;longtai.chen@spgchinaratings.cn
王逸夫,CFA,CPA,北京;yifu.wang@spgchinaratings.cn
崔聪,北京;cong.cui@spgchinaratings.cn
邹雪飞,CPA,北京;eric.zou@spgchinaratings.cn
Click here to view the English version.
债项信用等级通知:中国建设银行股份有限公司2021年小型微型企业贷款专项金融债券
2021年1月19日,标普信评评定中国建设银行股份有限公司2021年小型微型企业贷款专项金融债券信用等级为AAAspc。以下链接为相关债项信用等级通知全文。
Click here to view the English version.
Rating Action: China Construction Bank Assigned “AAAspc/stable”, and Its Financial Bond Rated “AAAspc”
- Author Longtai Chen 王 逸夫 Cong Cui Xuefei Zou
- Sector Financial Services
- Credit Outlook Stable
- Issuer Rating AAAspc
- Issue Rating AAAspc
BEIJING, January 19, 2021 - S&P Global (China) Ratings has assigned its AAAspc rating to China Construction Bank Corporation(“CCB”), and the outlook is stable. In addition, S&P Global (China) Ratings has assigned its AAAspc rating to CCB’s 2021 Special Financial Bond for Micro and Small Enterprise Lending.
We assess CCB’s stand-alone credit profile (“SACP”) as “aaspc”, five notches higher than the “bbb+” anchor we typically apply to a commercial bank in China. This is to reflect our view of the bank’s very strong business franchise as the second largest bank in China and its very strong funding and liquidity profile built on its massive deposit base.
The issuer credit rating (“ICR”) of “AAAspc” incorporates a two-notch uplift from our assessment of its SACP of “aaspc”, reflecting the extremely high likelihood of government support.
As China’s second largest bank, CCB has one of the most extensive domestic banking networks in China, operating over 14,000 branches within China and 33 branches overseas. As of the end of 2019, it had 11.56% and 9.27% market share of loans and deposits, respectively. CCB has a balanced and strong business franchise in corporate and retail banking with a strong edge in infrastructure finance and mortgage lending.
CCB has one of the largest deposit bases among Chinese banks and it has limited use of wholesale funding. As of the end of 2019, 79% of its liabilities were customer deposits, and its use of wholesale funding represented about 18% of its total liabilities, lower than the industry average. It also benefits from “flight to quality” when market liquidity tightens. The bank’s daily average liquidity coverage ratio was 155% in the fourth quarter of 2019, much higher than the minimum regulatory requirement of 100%.
CCB has adequate capitalization and healthy profitability. CCB has the highest regulatory capital adequacy ratios among its mega bank peers. As of the end of June 2020, its reported regulatory tier-1 capital adequacy ratio was 13.88%, 1.10 percentage points higher than the mega bank average and 2.27 percentage points higher than the industry average. Given its status as a global systematically important bank (G-SIB), we expect it to continue to strengthen its capitalization.
The risk profile of the bank’s loan portfolio is consistent with the industry average. Its asset quality has come under pressure from COVID-19. As of the end of June 2020, CCB’s NPL ratio was 1.49%, only 7 bps higher than the end of 2019. We view that the stable asset quality in the first half of 2020 was partially attributable to the lagging effect of NPL recognition, fast growth of new lending and writing off efforts, while we recognize some uncertainty remains over the rapidly increasing MSE loans, the performance of which depends on both the lending standards of the bank and the progress of the economic recovery.
We believe that CCB is extremely likely to receive support from the central government in times of need, considering its status as a state-owned mega bank and its important role in maintaining financial stability in China and providing financing to China’s infrastructure development and other important government initiatives. As of the end of 2019, 57% of CCB’s shares were controlled by Central Huijin Investment Ltd.
We have equalized the credit rating of the financial bond with the ICR of CCB. This bond is issued to grow CCB’s micro and small enterprise (“MSE”) lending business. The principal amount of this bond is RMB 20 billion, and its term is 3 years. The payment obligation of this financial bond is ranked equally with all the general liabilities of the bank that has no liens on, and prior to equity capital settlement of CCB.
Issuer Credit Rating Snapshot:
Anchor:bbb+
Business Position:+3
Capital and Earnings:0
Risk Position:0
Funding and Liquidity:+2
Stand-alone Credit Profile:aaspc
Government Support:+2
Issuer Credit Rating:AAAspc
Outlook/CreditWatch:Stable
Related Research & Commentary:
Credit Rating Report: China Construction Bank Corporation, Sep 18, 2020.
Related Methodology and Research:
S&P Global (China) Ratings Financial Institutions Methodology.
General Considerations on Rating Modifiers And Relative Ranking.
Commentary: Understanding S&P Global (China) Ratings Financial Institutions Methodology.
Commentary: Understanding S&P Global (China) Ratings Approach to Support.
Media Contacts:
Sharon Tang, Beijing, (86)10-6569-2988; sharon.tang@spgchinaratings.cn
Analyst Contacts:
Longtai Chen,Beijing;longtai.chen@spgchinaratings.cn
Yifu Wang, CFA,CPA, Beijing; yifu.wang@spgchinaratings.cn
Cui Cong, Beijing; cong.cui@spgchinaratings.cn
Xuefei Zou, CPA, Beijing; eric.zou@spgchinaratings.cn
(Note: This document is prepared in both English and Chinese. The English translation is for reference only, and the Chinese version will prevail in the event of any inconsistency between the English version and the Chinese version.)
- Author
- Longtai Chen 王 逸夫 Cong Cui Xuefei Zou
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Credit Outlook
- Stable
- Issuer Rating
- AAAspc
- Issue Rating
- AAAspc