• We see continued downward pressure on construction machinery sales over the next year. Weak recovery for domestic demand coupled with volatile export policy may suppress the positive momentum for the sector. In this context, key risks facing manufacturers in this sector would be dented profitability, bad debt loss associated with credit sales, and obligations of guaranteed repurchase.
• Chinese construction machinery manufacturers bear significantly higher leverage than their international peers. Given the strong cyclicality for the sector, a highly leveraged manufacturer may find its financial profile rather fragile at the trough of an industrial cycle.
• Our stress testing shows that industrial leaders such as Xugong Group, Zoomlion, SANY Group, Liugong Group, and Shantui, albeit facing high leverage like others, are likely to maintain adequate liquidity in the next year and enjoy certain degree of resilience against risks induced by increased repayments under repurchase guarantee and earnings fluctuations.

• 2023年“56号令”实施后，中资境外债监管全面转向审核登记制，中资境外债面临持续收紧的监管环境；化债周期下，城投境外债所受政策约束进一步强化，除常规境外债审核外，城投企业发行境外债还受到与境内“一揽子化债”方案挂钩的监管限制。
• 城投境内融资渠道收缩和债务滚续压力驱动境外债需求刚性增长，形成“监管趋严与融资需求刚性并存”的格局，并呈现两大特征：1）发行主体行政层级下沉，区县级平台成主力；2）各区域信用分化明显，山东、浙江、江苏、四川等区域面临集中到期与再融资压力。
• 标普信评认为，城投境外债发行结果受到中美利率环境、发行人及投资者对信用风险溢价的博弈等多重因素综合影响，境外市场对城投信用风险的敏感性高于境内，更强调市场化风险补偿，城投境外债发行利率料难下降。
• 我们认为，中资境外债市场将呈现“有保有压”监管趋势。严监管下，传统城投高息融资模式难以为继，境内债置换境外债、第三方担保发行或成为化解债务到期压力和压降融资成本的重要手段；同时，城投向“产投”转型可能突破现有发债限制，为市场注入新动能。

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