We believe the adjustments in real estate policies since August have arrived just in time to prevent housing sales from declining further. Following the Politburo meeting at the end of July that highlighted the major changes in supply and demand dynamics in China’s property market, a slew of measures was rolled out to adjust and optimize real estate policies, including a cut to the floor of down payment ratio on first- and second-home purchases, relaxed standards for identifying first-home mortgages across first-tier cities, and lower interest rates on existing mortgages. In our view, the implementation of such policies would unleash part of the pent-up demand from first-home buyers. September to date, new house and pre-owned home transactions in Beijing and Shanghai have increased considerably.

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今年国内在化解融资平台债务风险方面已取得重要的阶段性进展，大部分融资平台的到期债务实现了接续、重组和置换，融资成本也较之前显著下降。目前城投化债的进展符合我们的预期。高风险城投敞口对于银行的影响主要体现为贷款利率下降带来的息差收窄，而非拨备成本的大幅增加。因此，未来12个月，城投敞口大的部分股份制银行和城商行因城投风险导致信用质量严重下降的风险可控。

2024年8月，金融监管总局、证监会、市场监管总局联合下发了《关于进一步加强地方金融组织监管的通知》，着手未来三年对地方金融组织进一步清理和强化监管。通知总体要求地方金融组织总量不得新增、严格跨省经营，并以加强监管存量组织、坚决清退不合规机构为主。在资本市场活跃发债的非银金融机构中，该变化主要影响融资租赁公司、融资担保机构以及个别保理公司。