(Editors' note: This is an update of the commentary published on May 12, 2022, with minor changes on the cutoff points in table 7.)

According to our financial institution (“FI”) rating criteria, we typically determine the stand-alone credit profile (“SACP”) based on our assessment of an institution’s anchor, a starting point, and then incorporating its own characteristics compared with the anchor. The entity-specific factors that we may use to adjust from the anchor include business position, capital & earnings, risk position, and funding & liquidity. We then determine the issuer credit ratings (“ICR”) based on the SACP and our assessment of potential group or government influence in time of stress.

• 标普信评预计，持续的政策利好使得城投企业获得一定资金支持，加之再融资环境有所改善，2024年城投债券违约风险不高。然而，城投债务规模仍较大，弱区域城投企业仍有债务压力，银行借款、票据、非标等债务展期或违约的风险恐在所难免，较2023年可能有所减少，但仍不可盲目乐观。
• 我们认为，中央对地方债务监管政策有一定调整；在严控隐债增量的情况下，加速存量债务化解，管理范围可能扩大到部分城投企业债务，也就是既包含隐性债务，也有经营性债务；地方政府化债责任进一步明晰，利于防范尾部风险。
• 我们预计，化债进程中城投企业不同类型债务将得到差异化处理。城投债券安全边际较高，主体信用质量仍取决于地方政府与城投企业基本面；地方政府财经纪律更加规范，城投企业面临的融资监管也更加严格；由于区域间的差异，城投企业未来发展也有所差异，部分城投企业或向产业化转型，需谨慎对待。