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Rating Action: Crédit Agricole S.A. Assigned “AAAspc” Rating; Outlook Stable

楼市复苏动能趋弱:专项债提速、城中村改造加码、现房销售试点能否稳预期?

债务化解术:湖南如何打赢信用修复战?

评级报告:中国建设基础设施有限公司主体评级报告,2025年5月15日

化债周期与利率变局下的城投境外债发行趋势


Rating Action: Crédit Agricole S.A. Assigned “AAAspc” Rating; Outlook Stable

BEIJING, March 9, 2021-S&P Global (China) Ratings today assigned its “AAAspc” issuer credit rating (“ICR”) to Crédit Agricole S.A. (CASA). The Outlook is stable.

Our rating on CASA. one of the largest banks in France, is based on the ‘A+’ issuer credit rating assigned by S&P Global Ratings, and a four-notch uplift through the application of the S&P Global (China) Ratings Panda Bond Methodology.

According to our Panda Bond Methodology, our analysis of foreign issuers typically considers the credit opinion which S&P Global Ratings may have on that issuer. Where a foreign domiciled issuer has stronger credit quality characteristics, such as “BBB” category or above credit quality as determined by S&P Global Ratings, S&P Global (China) Ratings may assign a view of credit quality typically in the range of two to five notches higher than the credit quality opinion of S&P Global Ratings. Under this methodology, the notch uplift above a rating assigned by S&P Global Ratings is based on the broad relationship observed between the credit quality opinions of S&P Global Ratings and S&P Global (China) Ratings.

Our rating on CASA is based on S&P Global Ratings’ view of its credit quality. According to S&P Global Ratings, CASA is a firm market leader in the French retail banking sector, generating good and predictable risk-adjusted earnings. It has an increasingly diverse business model and income sources, with leading franchises, notably in retail banking, insurance, and asset management, while its sound earnings and cooperative status support internal capital generation.

S&P Global Ratings has also found that CASA may have weaker profitability over the next two years from the COVID-19-induced recession. Its economic risk is relatively high in Italy, which the group considers its second home market. Low interest rates weigh on its net interest margins, in line with the rest of the industry, heightening the need to further improve efficiency.

At the same time, S&P Global (China) Ratings has equalized its ratings on CASA’s outstanding senior preferred obligations bonds issued in China with the issuer credit ratings on the issuer.

 

Rating Score Snapshot:

Issuer Credit Rating and Outlook assigned by S&P Global Ratings: A/Negative

Notches Applied According to S&P Global (China) Ratings’ Panda Bond Methodology: +4

Issuer Credit Rating and Outlook assigned by S&P Global (China) Ratings: AAAspc/Stable

 

Related Rating Report:

Credit Rating Report: Crédit Agricole S.A., March 9 2021.

Issue Rating Notice: Crédit Agricole S.A. 2019 Renminbi Bonds (Series 1) Rated “AAAspc”, March 9 2021.

Issue Rating Notice: Crédit Agricole S.A. 2020 Renminbi Bonds (Series 1) Rated “AAAspc”, March 9 2021.

 

Related Criteria and Research

S&P Global (China) Ratings -Panda Bond Methodology;

S&P Global (China) Ratings General Considerations on Rating Modifiers and Relative Ranking.

 

Media Contacts:

Sharon Tang, Beijing, (86)10-6569-2988; sharon.tang@spgchinaratings.cn

 

Analyst Contacts:

Yifu Wang, CFA,CPA, Beijing;yifu.wang@spgchinaratings.cn

Zheng Li, Beijing; zheng.li@spgchinaratings.cn

Longtai Chen, Beijing; longtai.chen@spgchinaratings.cn

 



楼市复苏动能趋弱:专项债提速、城中村改造加码、现房销售试点能否稳预期?

4月楼市复苏势头有所放缓,巩固企稳态势仍有赖于政策支持。1-4月全国商品房销售数据显示,销售额累计同比下降3.2%,降幅较一季度扩大1.1个百分点;销售面积累计同比下降2.8%,降幅较一季度小幅收窄0.2个百分点。房价方面,70个大中城市房价指数显示,4月新房价格环比持平,二手房价环比降幅有所扩大。其中,新房价格环比上涨城市数量降至22个,较上月减少2个;二手房价格环比上涨城市数量降至5个,较上月减少5个。

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债务化解术:湖南如何打赢信用修复战?

  • 湖南省作为全国化债先行者,通过构建“省级统筹-市县落地”垂直管控体系,依托金融资源协同优势倾斜重点区域,隐性债务化解取得实效。
  • 承担战略职能的转型城投企业可以获得地方政府持续性支持,信用质量有望保持稳定。
  • 我们认为城投企业脱离区域产业基础和管理能力的激进转型可能会提高债务压力和偿债风险。

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评级报告:中国建设基础设施有限公司主体评级报告,2025年5月15日

2025年5月15日,标普信评发布中国建设基础设施有限公司主体评级报告。

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化债周期与利率变局下的城投境外债发行趋势

  • 2023年“56号令”实施后,中资境外债监管全面转向审核登记制,中资境外债面临持续收紧的监管环境;化债周期下,城投境外债所受政策约束进一步强化,除常规境外债审核外,城投企业发行境外债还受到与境内“一揽子化债”方案挂钩的监管限制。
  • 城投境内融资渠道收缩和债务滚续压力驱动境外债需求刚性增长,形成“监管趋严与融资需求刚性并存”的格局,并呈现两大特征:1)发行主体行政层级下沉,区县级平台成主力;2)各区域信用分化明显,山东、浙江、江苏、四川等区域面临集中到期与再融资压力。
  • 标普信评认为,城投境外债发行结果受到中美利率环境、发行人及投资者对信用风险溢价的博弈等多重因素综合影响,境外市场对城投信用风险的敏感性高于境内,更强调市场化风险补偿,城投境外债发行利率料难下降。
  • 我们认为,中资境外债市场将呈现“有保有压”监管趋势。严监管下,传统城投高息融资模式难以为继,境内债置换境外债、第三方担保发行或成为化解债务到期压力和压降融资成本的重要手段;同时,城投向“产投”转型可能突破现有发债限制,为市场注入新动能。

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